For those who have been watching political events in Oyo State from January 2015, there is nothing astonishing about the decision of former governor of the state, Adebayo Alao-Akala, to move to the All Progressives Congress from the Labour Party.
Alao-Akala had sought refuge in the Labour Party after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party on the eve of the last general elections.
Perhaps, what should be of bigger concern is the motive behind his move and what it portends for politics in the Pacesetter state and the APC.
The excuses given by Nigerian politicians for dumping one party for another are usually attributed to the wishes of their supporters. But we have learnt that a lot of intrigues, political maneuvering, plots, scheming and in fact, deception determine such decision, all in the name of sustaining political relevance.
Alao-Akala is no doubt a respected political figure in the state. Like all politicians, he has a strong political base, particularly in Ogbomoso, and close political associates that he has almost successfully kept intact. This was demonstrated when thousands of his supporters moved with him to the LP from the PDP. It is not out of place to say that PDP leaders in the state goofed when they declared that the party would do better without Alao-Akala in the party. What a political miscalculation that had proved to be.
Apart from the fact that PDP’s national image was nose-diving because of obvious lack of depth and vibrant political style within its hierarchy, it was also glaring that in Oyo State, the leaders were bent on gaining control of the party’s dying soul, even when they lacked the political base to breathe freshness into the party. The result of the party leadership’s show of egotism and fantasy was the party’s descent into the darker region of political dungeon.
This heralded the major political alteration in the state, with the APC, content at last, that its main rival had kissed the dust. For Alao-Akala, it was like starting a race from the rare as he needed stunning magic to win the governorship contest as a candidate of the LP. However, politics became more interesting in the state with another former governor, Rashidi Ladoja, being the candidate of Accord Party.
Eventually the race was won by Governor Abiola Ajimobi with Alao-Akala coming third behind Ladoja. While Ladoja is still contesting the victory in court, Alao-Akala seems to be content with his impact at the poll and the assurance that his political base has remained under his control.
The former governor’s journey to the APC did not start lately. There were signs that Ajimobi and the LP candidate could strike an accord even during the campaign.
After the election, APC got 18 seats in the state House of Assembly, Accord got eight and LP got six.
To strengthen the presence of his party in the house, all Ajimobi needed to do was lure LP members to work with members of the APC but he could only do that if he accepted Alao-Akala, who the LP members owed allegiance to, as a political ally. This, Ajimobi has been able to do with Alao-Akala having nothing to lose by joining him. At 65 now and 69 by 2019, Alao-Akala nurses no further ambition of contesting election and it would be smarter for him to associate with winners than plotting a comeback.
In the run-in to the election, there were rumours of overtures by APC leaders to bring Alao-Akala to the party after it was clear that he would fall out with the PDP. It would mean dropping his ambition and working for Ajimobi’s APC but would his supporters not feel betrayed or mortgaged in the murky waters of politics by their principal?
The first noticeable sign of future alliance between Ajimobi and Alao-Akala manifested even before the results were announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission. Journalists were at the collation centre in Ibadan when a mail was sent by the campaign organisation of the LP candidate, with Alao-Akala congratulating Ajimobi for winning the election. It was a simple way of securing political future without fighting for it. It also partly confirmed the notion that Alao-Akala only contested the election to ruin the chances of the PDP and the Accord Party.
It is said that Alao-Akala would rather have Ajimobi in power than PDP’s Teslim Folarin or Ladoja, who was believed to have worked against him in 2011.
Ajimobi and Alao-Akala have since been seen together at social events in the state and even abroad, with each applauding the political style and relevance of the other.
Strategically, Alao-Akala’s pronouncement of his move to the APC was done in Ajimobi’s house in Oluyole Estate, Ibadan, on the day that an Appeal Court in the state threw out Ladoja’s appeal against Ajimobi’s election victory, which was earlier validated by the state governorship Election Petition Tribunal.
If Accord fails to bounce back significantly from its present position, the implication of the Ajimobi/Alao-Akala union is that the state politics could be a one-party affair.
One may ask if this political marriage can be trusted or if it will survive the political turbulence associated with the state. Can both big wigs be trusted and can they work within the same political framework and ideology? What is only sure is that except APC self-destructs, the chances of aspiring governors in 2019, who are not members of the party, have suffered a deafening blow.
Will former governorship candidate in the state, Seyi Makinde, be on his way to joining the APC from the Social Democratic Party to actualise his dreams? What will be the fate of up and coming politicians in the party, who are already weighing their chances of becoming governorship candidates of the party as Ajimobi prepares for roles on the sideline?
Providing answers to these posers is a difficult task because of the complex political zoning in the state, and the emergence of Adebayo Shittu as Minister of Communication. These are landmines that APC leaders must avoid with great care ahead of 2019.
As it looks, APC now has three strong figures from three main political zones in the party. Ajimobi has the support of the Ibadan Elders Forum, who hosted him to a grand reception recently over his victory at the poll. Alao-Akala undoubtedly controls the Ogbomoso axis while Shittu has a strong backing from Saki, in Oke-Ogun area of the state. Ajimobi and Alao-Akala will surely play the godfather’s role in the party.
Shittu did not hide his ambition to become governor of the state with an imminent clash of interest ensuing between him and Ajimobi in the APC during the last elections. After President Muhammadu Buhari picked him as a minister-designate, Oyo State APC kicked against it. It even got to a point when a paid advertisement was sponsored by the APC in the state against him, alleging that Shittu was not a party player and should not have been appointed by the President.
During a reception held in honour of Shittu after he was confirmed as a minister, Ajimobi said that he opposed his choice but had to accept it after some Muslim clerics approached him on behalf of Shittu. With such friction already created, even though all parties involved claim to have left it behind them, there could be a resurrection if in 2019, Shittu expresses his governorship ambition. With Buhari behind him and the party going against it, the situation could throw up political tussles in the state.
In the event of a clash within the party hierarchy over its control, will Alao-Akala and Ajimobi team up and use their strength to stamp their authority, or will it pave the way for the emergence of another coalition of splinter groups within and outside the party? One thing that is clear is that much as the Ibadan/Ogbomoso coalition wants a big stake in the APC, the Oke-Ogun people, who now see Shittu as their best chance of producing a governor in the state, also wants to be seen as a factor to be reckoned with.
The Punch
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